The Russo-Ukrainian War: What are its Impacts on our World?

On February 24, 2022, Russian troops invaded Ukraine. Although the Russo-Ukrainian War first began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, this recent invasion has greatly escalated the war, and its global implications have been devastating.

In Ukraine, the invasion has resulted in thousands of civilian and military casualties, the greatest displacement in European history since World War II, and around 600 billion dollars worth of property damage (Reuters). According to BBC, people have reported over fifteen thousand war crimes in Ukraine since the invasion began.

Ukraine is not the only country that has faced dire implications due to the invasion. According to the United Nations Task Team for the Global Crisis Response Group, "1.7 billion people in the world live in 107 economies that are [severely impacted by] rising food prices, rising energy prices, and tightening financial conditions [due to the invasion]" (UN). Without international aid, many of these countries will face increasing social unrest and economic distress.

Let's go a bit more in-depth into how the ongoing war has impacted various countries regarding two main commodities: food and energy.

Food

Ukraine and Russia are significant producers of grain, providing approximately a fifth of the world's corn, half of its sunflower oil, and thirty percent of its wheat and barley (UN). The invasion has markedly disrupted this output, skyrocketing food and fertilizer prices around the globe. In fact, the global food price index has increased by a staggering 12% from February to March of 2022, according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.

Unfortunately, the most vulnerable people in the world are feeling the consequences. For example, as of April 2022, 27 million people in West Africa are already going hungry. Based on aid organizations' predictions, 11 million more people will fit into that category by June to August of 2022 (NPR).

In Peru, rising prices for food and fuel essentials have sparked riots and plunged the president's approval ratings (Bloomberg). To ensure that basic goods are still affordable, protesters have demanded a new constitution that will allow the government to regulate, and lower, the prices of private-company products.

One factor that complicates the shortage of food in the long term is the disruption of the output of fertilizer, one of Russia's major exports. This poses a threat to the agricultural industry in countries that heavily rely on Russian fertilizer for farming, leading to expected "yield reductions of up to 50%, particularly in countries with a large share of small-farmers" (UN). Not enough fertilizer equals not enough food, and that may exacerbate a trend of starvation in developing countries.

Energy

In part due to sanctions on Russian oil after the invasion, gas prices have been hitting record highs lately, climbing up to a national average of five dollars per gallon on June 9th and even higher in states like California (Forbes). This, as well as similar hikes in the costs of food and basic goods, has taken a heavy toll on US economic growth.

However, in other countries, especially those with developing or unstable governments, the fuel shortage has held even greater consequences. In Sri Lanka, the invasion worsened an already grim economic crisis rooted in poor economic policies and a lack of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, severe inflation rates threaten the livelihood of millions living on the small island (BBC).

Sri Lanka's inflation jumped from around 15% in January (pre-invasion) to over 50% in June of 2022. Besides soaring food prices that have forced many to cut back on meals, Sri Lankans have also had to deal with exorbitant prices of fuel and daily blackouts that last for hours. During the power cuts, countless people are left unable to do their jobs, further adding to their financial strain (The Washington Post). To conserve fuel, schools have closed, and the government has urged people to work from home.

Unsurprisingly, Sri Lankans are unsatisfied with their government's handling of the economic crisis. Mass protests demanding Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa resign have led him to flee the country with his family. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, who was appointed president temporarily, has also received fervent opposition.

Numerous other countries aside from Sri Lanka must also deal with the repercussions of the global fuel shortage. On April 14, fuel prices in Kenya spiked to a level not seen in over a decade. However, several developed countries and international organizations are currently working toward alleviating the financial stress of nations hit especially hard by fuel and food inflation. For instance, the US has pledged nearly twelve million dollars to aid Sri Lankans in handling their economic crisis, allocating millions to both humanitarian aid and "developmental assistance" for small businesses in Sri Lanka (USAID). Having said that, this is still not enough. The international community needs to come together to support developing countries impacted by the invasion; working together effectively is the only way we can relieve the economic burden of these nations.

Solutions

Here is a summary of a few general recommendations from this UN report to mitigate the effects of the invasion. For a more in-depth analysis, read page 14 of the report.

Regarding food shortages and inflation:

Countries should further support other countries in need so that export-dependent nations can diversify their agricultural imports and feed their populations. Furthermore, it is key that the international community works together to remove food export restrictions/tariffs when it comes to humanitarian assistance. Maintaining freight prices and tracking market conditions will also address barriers to the flow of trade.

Regarding fuel shortages and inflation:

In the short term, governments can target fuel shortages by opening up "strategic petroleum reserves" to the global market. In the medium to long term, we should look into ways to improve energy efficiency and opt for renewable energy. The gradual transition to sustainable energy should be a global effort, with developed countries aiding developing countries in "financi[al] and technical assistance" (UN).

Overall:

In sum, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has set off a ripple effect across the globe, posing challenges to both developed and developing nations. However, through a combination of the solutions mentioned above as well as targeted financial assistance (i.e. a suspension of interest surcharges in the short term, resource transfers to disadvantaged nations, and emergency debt relief), nations will be able to successfully aid the most vulnerable populations.